A Sigmoid curve illustrates the principle that everything rises and everything falls. We are now seeing a decline of the might of the United States, just as in recent history we have seen the decline of the British, French and German Empires, and further back some 2000 years ago, the Roman Empire. Will Asia become the new Rome as we witness not just the shattered economy of the United States, but the shattered economic philosophy of unregulated market forces.
Asia has certainly been a late starter with many nation-states only achieving independence within the last 50 years. Infrastructure and self-government (often in a vacuum) have been the main early priorities but early warning signs of the powerful potential of Asian economies were evidenced by the economic success stories of Japan, South Korea, Singapore and Hong Kong. Now the economic might and increasing global influence of India and China are sounding a major challenge to the West and to the United States in particular.

Asian politics are going through an increasingly settled period of maturity (in the main). Corruption and grossly uneven distribution of wealth are major issues to address along with human rights and environmental considerations but market strength, work ethic, non-union conditions and manufacturing efficiency are powerful counter balances. China’s contribution to the world GDP has grown from 20% to 33% and India from 6% to 16% over the last 6 years. China, India and Japan are senior figures in all international trade and economic forums with increasing talk now of a “G2” – China and the United States.

With the increasing demise of the United States financially and perhaps morally, and bogged down in crippling Middle Eastern military campaigns, Asian nations have an opportunity to assume some of the mantle, but need to do so politically as well as economically. Regional issues in Myanmar and North Korea need Asian leadership and an Asian solution. Addressing human rights, environmental issues and raising the living standards of the poor throughout the region need to become strategic goals. In July 2009, the Asian Development Bank announced US$1.7 billion in loans for Asian countries – Vietnam, Philippines and Indonesia in particular – to develop green energy alternatives, The bank also announced that by 2020, 40% of its lending would be to address environmental issues.

The enormous economic growth and strength of the Chinese and Indian economies together with the ‘smart’ modelling of countries like Singapore, Japan and South Korea gives Asia the potential to become the ‘new Rome’. The potential for the New Zealand economy to leverage off the Asian juggernaut is enormous. Despite the potential of recent free trade agreements within the region, including China, New Zealand seems oblivious to the trading opportunities presented by the large, well education, English speaking middle classes in Malaysia, South Korea, and India. If Asia is the new Rome, will New Zealand sit at its court?